申请同济大学工学博士学位论文


基于消费者选择意愿的

汽车共享推广政策研究

 

培养单位:交通运输工程学院

一级学科:交通运输工程

二级学科:交通运输规划与管理

研 究 生:汪鸣泉

指导教师:杨东援 教授

二○一一年三月

 

A dissertation submitted to

Tongji University in conformity with the requirements for

the degree of Doctor of Philosophy

Development Policy of Carsharing in China

Based on Consumer Choice Preference

 

School: School of Transportation Engineering

Discipline: Transportation Engineering

Major: Transport Planning and Management

Candidate: Ming-quan Wang

Supervisor: Prof. Dong-yuan Yang

March, 2011

 

摘  要

随着我国城市化进程的不断推动,原本依赖于非机动出行的密集型城市格局被打破,机动化伴随城市化的进程不断加速。我国曾经被称为"自行车王国",但是30年来高速的经济发展使得人们的行动能力不再受限于自行车或者步行。随着汽车逐步进入家庭,机动化交通方式逐步取代原本无污染无能源消耗的步行和自行车出行模式,造成国内大部分城市开始出现不同程度的交通拥堵。此外,城市交通的发展越来越受制于资源、环境的约束。机动化所带来的交通能源环境问题逐渐加剧。国际能源储量下降导致能源的价格不断上扬,而消耗产生的环境污染问题也日趋严重。我国交通占所有能源消耗的比例为15%-17%,占原油消耗的比例接近50%,占污染源的比例为60%。

在这样的新形势下,我国政府的交通发展政策也适时地将单纯鼓励交通基础设施建设和汽车产业的发展,转变到制定结合能源、环境等制约因素的可持续交通发展策略,提高汽车产业的品牌质量以及清洁能源技术的能力上来,试图避免发达国家走过的无序蔓延式的增长模式,寻求适合我国实际情况的发展之路,以实现经济、社会的较快较好发展。

本文即是对汽车共享这种新交通模式在我国的应用可能性以及相关推广政策的研究。汽车共享类似于会员制的汽车俱乐部,为居民提供短时的汽车租赁业务,其源于上世纪40年代,并于本世纪初在北美和欧洲等地区快速发展。对我国来说,汽车共享可以在汽车未全面进入家庭时,缓解非理性的购车行为带来的诱增出行及城市蔓延问题,满足合理的用车需求,在中心城区替代一部分出租车的功能,并从整体上减少机动车的行驶里程,缓解城市交通的压力,降低能源消耗和尾气排放。

汽车共享可以作为公交发展的补充,也有助于清洁能源汽车的发展。近年来北京、上海等世界级的特大城市都明确了建立以轨道交通为骨架,普通公交为主体的城市交通策略,但是公交及轨道的运营存在集中性,对通勤以外的合理的小汽车出行需求仍然要通过其他方式满足,而汽车共享可以作为一种选择。此外,汽车共享一般在固定地点取停车,若使用电动车为主力车型,则可以基本解决电池的更换问题,若结合使用混合动力车,则可以在电动车推广后满足部分周末远行的需求,弥补电动车的距离限制。因此,汽车共享还可以作为清洁能源车的推广的一种辅助模式。

本文立论的基础即是将公共部门政策引导和私人部门技术革新量化为影响消费市场的价格因素,根据消费者选择的最高效用理论,针对居民的汽车购置计划及未来可能通过汽车共享减少的购车需求进行基本的消费者选择偏好及意愿分析。

本文集中对车辆购置数量和车型选择的探讨,以替代效用理论为着眼点,对汽车拥有的替代模式的选择效用进行研究,试图通过两次调查收集的现实出行偏好(Revealed Preference: RP)选择数据和设定模式下的出行偏好(Stated Preference: SP)选择数据,构建效用模型。并在对选择的效用进行定量分析的基础上从以下几个方面来进行政策分析:

(1)政府通过补贴和政策引导企业进入汽车共享市场

(2)个人得益于政府补贴和企业的服务水平提高从而转移购车需求

(3)企业通过个人需求的改变及时调整营销手段


并运用统计分析的定量结果和模型数据的总体分析来明晰这三者之间的合作关系,在理清政府、企业、个人三者之间关系的同时,提出可行的推广汽车共享的政策举措,并计算相应的行程折减和能耗折减,为政府制定政策提供依据。

通过统计、模型以及政策分析,本文的主要结论如下:

(1)汽车共享的社会效应显著,若能广泛推广,可以全面降低未来机动车的拥有量以及汽车进入家庭的速度。

(2)汽车共享目前在我国应用的背景尚不成熟,但前景可观。

(3)对环境、能源的全民意识尚未普及,因此对环境、能源等问题的关注并不是驱动人们选择汽车共享的主要原因。

(4)经济性仍然是人们选择加入汽车共享,使用共享汽车模式的主要动机。


关键词: 汽车共享、可持续、选择偏好、效用模型、车型选择、Logit

 

ABSTRACT

China used to be called the kingdom of the bicycle, but this situation has changed. After 30 years of rapid development, the economy of China has grown considerably. This growth has brought about significant urbanization and motorization development in China, improving the housing and travel condition of the Chinese. More people have moved to locations on the urban fringe, no longer concentrated in the center. This evolution of urbanization requires more advanced mobility for residents. Nowadays, the private car has become a more common asset among citizens, but serious externalities such as congestion, pollution, and energy security have become problems for cities of China as well. Although transit and railway have been planned as an effective means of sustainable transportation development in the future, we still find that a question arises regarding how to fulfill the demand of owning a vehicle while avoiding the new problems that rising ownership will bring. This dissertation attempts to explore the possibility for people to share an energy efficient car in China, as a solution to balance the automobile industry and sustainable mobility in the future. Energy consumption has also increased rapidly, and fuel consumption will accelerate with increased ownership as well. Transportation consumes around 15%-17% of the energy, 50% of the gasoline, and 60% of the total pollution in China. A total of 70% of energy consumption in China is based on coal, so the increase of oil consumption will alter the whole energy structure of China (Energy Information Administration, 2009). This change will make China more vulnerable to a large energy crisis. Since 47% of the oil consumption was imported in 2006 (China Energy Primer, 2009).

The Chinese government has been aware of the energy security problem of the future development, especially in the transportation sector where almost 50% of the oil is being consumed. Exploiting new energy and reducing energy consumption is the main national strategy of China in future sustainable development. The Chinese government plan to invest about 20 billion yuan into the automobile industry to develop advanced energy technologies that promote efficiency and alternative fuels through 2012. A longer term investment will be supported later, and most of them are focusing the electrical vehicle (Yao and Huang, 2008). At the same time, the central government has waived the road maintenance fee and started to levy a fuel tax instead. So it is expected that the government can control the balance of demand and supply through tax rate adjustment. This provides a large opportunity for carsharing when the gasoline price increases and carsharing can promote the use of energy efficient vehicles.

Since most of the electrical vehicle can only travel in short trip length, there are two opportunities carsharing to promote electrical vehicle in China. At first, the travel patterns of the North America carsharing market shows the trip length are always less than 180 miles, which suggests that many (but perhaps not all) customers can return electric vehicles before the battery is exhausted. So if carsharing could use electrical cars as their vehicles, it may be a good opportunity to increase government support in China. Secondly, if the electrical vehicle starts to enter Chinese household, it is a good option for them to use carsharing as a second long-distance vehicle, which could also replace this type of car-ownership.

On the other hand, private car and rental car is convenient and fast, which is suitable for 2 miles to 50 miles. But serious congestion and parking problem in the peak hour makes less people drive for commuting in China. Most residents take taxi instead of driving by themselves. Taxi has higher capacity than private car, because it can be used more without parking, but carsharing can take people including the drivers. In other words, carsharing can be both a public and private vehicle, it may also make up for the gaps of the current traffic infrastructure.

Unlike a simple hourly car rental, sharing a vehicle (or short-term auto use) within a neighborhood is called carsharing. Carsharing gives people and transit commuters an alternative to co-own a vehicle from an accessible location nearby, without the need to purchase a car, which has large fixed costs. Neighborhood, business, and college markets are the most popular carsharing business models in the world. Among these models, the neighborhood model is the most widely applied in the US and Europe. Although Japan and Singapore started carsharing by introducing station cars, they transformed to the neighborhood model in recent years (Shaheen and Rodier, 2005).

Carsharing started in Europe in the 1940s. By the 1980s, carsharing evolved into its modern form and has grown rapidly all over the world since then (Shaheen et.al, 2009). During the past 8 years, the cost of gasoline in the United States increased from an average of $1.34 per gallon in 2002 to $4.07 in 2008 and falling down to $3.39 by 2010 (Energy Information Administration, 2010). Energy-cost uncertainty, coupled with pressure to increase energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions, has encouraged more drivers to seek alternatives to private vehicle use (Shaheen et.al, 2009). By 2007, carsharing worldwide had 347,910 members and 11,696 vehicles (Shaheen and Cohen, 2007).

Sharing a ride is not a strange concept for the Chinese. Residents always share their trips in buses and taxis if it is necessary. It is the traditional custom to share daily use with their neighbors in China. In the 1980s, different families would share viewing a television program, and it was common for neighbors to share bicycles in the 1990s. As wealth in China has increased, the need to share these items has fallen. But we may still expect that people in large cities would consider sharing a car with neighbors, as is done in other developed countries. This is meaningful in China, where 80 million driver-license holders have no car to use. It is clear that the increase of private vehicle ownership will not stop in the near future. But sharing a vehicle may be one of the most effective ways to mitigate motorization problems and promote the energy efficient automobile industry in China. To know more about the background of applying carsharing, we need to know more about the future structure of transportation in China. A long-term strategic plan of sustainable transportation has been created by the central government for the coming years, which includes the following initiatives: car-ownership and energy efficient automobile industry, large taxi and immature car rental, as well as public transportation and commuting vehicle usage.

This study will collect RP and SP data in Shanghai based on preference for travel and for carsharing. The results will be used to inform planning and operating policy of potential carsharing systems. As we have mentioned, Shanghai has 17 million people and about 1 million cars. So if carsharing in Shanghai could be a success, carsharing in China could be accepted by more people. On the other hand, most of the office buildings and jobs are also located in the center covering about 100 km2 in Shanghai. Carsharing is success in most crowded and busy cities, such as New York City, and London. This will makes Shanghai as an excellent case to compare data with other worldwide cities.

The following work is divided into three main parts to show how the research will be done. It contains: (1) a synopsis of travel behavior theory as it relates to carsharing, to makes my own theory about carsharing with the help of literature review; (2) a methodology, to show how to get the data and how to use these data to analyze the hypothesis of the theory; and (3) proposed policy analysis, to create different policy options and use the data to show what is the advantages and disadvantages of these options.

After the analysis, we could get four conclusions:

(1)The social impact of carsharing is very important, if carsharing in China could be widely operated, it will slow down the increasing speed of vehicle ownership.

(2)The application possible of carsharing in China is not ready, but we could know the great future.

(3)Since the energy and environmental sense is not widely accepted, the personal energy and environmental factors are not the major impact with the choice utility.

(4)Economic benefit is still the major factor when people decide whether to join carsharing.

Key Words:  Carsharing, Sustainbility, Choice Preference, Utility Model, Vehicle Type Choice, Logit.