研 究 生：汪鸣泉
A dissertation submitted to
Tongji University in conformity with the requirements for
the degree of Doctor of Philosophy
Development Policy of Carsharing in China
Based on Consumer Choice Preference
School: School of Transportation Engineering
Discipline: Transportation Engineering
Major: Transport Planning and Management
Candidate: Ming-quan Wang
Supervisor: Prof. Dong-yuan Yang
本文集中对车辆购置数量和车型选择的探讨，以替代效用理论为着眼点，对汽车拥有的替代模式的选择效用进行研究，试图通过两次调查收集的现实出行偏好（Revealed Preference: RP）选择数据和设定模式下的出行偏好（Stated Preference: SP）选择数据，构建效用模型。并在对选择的效用进行定量分析的基础上从以下几个方面来进行政策分析：
China used to be called the kingdom of the bicycle, but this situation has changed. After 30 years of rapid development, the economy of China has grown considerably. This growth has brought about significant urbanization and motorization development in China, improving the housing and travel condition of the Chinese. More people have moved to locations on the urban fringe, no longer concentrated in the center. This evolution of urbanization requires more advanced mobility for residents. Nowadays, the private car has become a more common asset among citizens, but serious externalities such as congestion, pollution, and energy security have become problems for cities of China as well. Although transit and railway have been planned as an effective means of sustainable transportation development in the future, we still find that a question arises regarding how to fulfill the demand of owning a vehicle while avoiding the new problems that rising ownership will bring. This dissertation attempts to explore the possibility for people to share an energy efficient car in China, as a solution to balance the automobile industry and sustainable mobility in the future. Energy consumption has also increased rapidly, and fuel consumption will accelerate with increased ownership as well. Transportation consumes around 15%-17% of the energy, 50% of the gasoline, and 60% of the total pollution in China. A total of 70% of energy consumption in China is based on coal, so the increase of oil consumption will alter the whole energy structure of China (Energy Information Administration, 2009). This change will make China more vulnerable to a large energy crisis. Since 47% of the oil consumption was imported in 2006 (China Energy Primer, 2009).
The Chinese government has been aware of the energy security problem of the future development, especially in the transportation sector where almost 50% of the oil is being consumed. Exploiting new energy and reducing energy consumption is the main national strategy of China in future sustainable development. The Chinese government plan to invest about 20 billion yuan into the automobile industry to develop advanced energy technologies that promote efficiency and alternative fuels through 2012. A longer term investment will be supported later, and most of them are focusing the electrical vehicle (Yao and Huang, 2008). At the same time, the central government has waived the road maintenance fee and started to levy a fuel tax instead. So it is expected that the government can control the balance of demand and supply through tax rate adjustment. This provides a large opportunity for carsharing when the gasoline price increases and carsharing can promote the use of energy efficient vehicles.
Since most of the electrical vehicle can only travel in short trip length, there are two opportunities carsharing to promote electrical vehicle in China. At first, the travel patterns of the North America carsharing market shows the trip length are always less than 180 miles, which suggests that many (but perhaps not all) customers can return electric vehicles before the battery is exhausted. So if carsharing could use electrical cars as their vehicles, it may be a good opportunity to increase government support in China. Secondly, if the electrical vehicle starts to enter Chinese household, it is a good option for them to use carsharing as a second long-distance vehicle, which could also replace this type of car-ownership.
On the other hand, private car and rental car is convenient and fast, which is suitable for 2 miles to 50 miles. But serious congestion and parking problem in the peak hour makes less people drive for commuting in China. Most residents take taxi instead of driving by themselves. Taxi has higher capacity than private car, because it can be used more without parking, but carsharing can take people including the drivers. In other words, carsharing can be both a public and private vehicle, it may also make up for the gaps of the current traffic infrastructure.
Unlike a simple hourly car rental, sharing a vehicle (or short-term auto use) within a neighborhood is called carsharing. Carsharing gives people and transit commuters an alternative to co-own a vehicle from an accessible location nearby, without the need to purchase a car, which has large fixed costs. Neighborhood, business, and college markets are the most popular carsharing business models in the world. Among these models, the neighborhood model is the most widely applied in the US and Europe. Although Japan and Singapore started carsharing by introducing station cars, they transformed to the neighborhood model in recent years (Shaheen and Rodier, 2005).
Carsharing started in Europe in the 1940s. By the 1980s, carsharing evolved into its modern form and has grown rapidly all over the world since then (Shaheen et.al, 2009). During the past 8 years, the cost of gasoline in the United States increased from an average of $1.34 per gallon in 2002 to $4.07 in 2008 and falling down to $3.39 by 2010 (Energy Information Administration, 2010). Energy-cost uncertainty, coupled with pressure to increase energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions, has encouraged more drivers to seek alternatives to private vehicle use (Shaheen et.al, 2009). By 2007, carsharing worldwide had 347,910 members and 11,696 vehicles (Shaheen and Cohen, 2007).
Sharing a ride is not a strange concept for the Chinese. Residents always share their trips in buses and taxis if it is necessary. It is the traditional custom to share daily use with their neighbors in China. In the 1980s, different families would share viewing a television program, and it was common for neighbors to share bicycles in the 1990s. As wealth in China has increased, the need to share these items has fallen. But we may still expect that people in large cities would consider sharing a car with neighbors, as is done in other developed countries. This is meaningful in China, where 80 million driver-license holders have no car to use. It is clear that the increase of private vehicle ownership will not stop in the near future. But sharing a vehicle may be one of the most effective ways to mitigate motorization problems and promote the energy efficient automobile industry in China. To know more about the background of applying carsharing, we need to know more about the future structure of transportation in China. A long-term strategic plan of sustainable transportation has been created by the central government for the coming years, which includes the following initiatives: car-ownership and energy efficient automobile industry, large taxi and immature car rental, as well as public transportation and commuting vehicle usage.
This study will collect RP and SP data in Shanghai based on preference for travel and for carsharing. The results will be used to inform planning and operating policy of potential carsharing systems. As we have mentioned, Shanghai has 17 million people and about 1 million cars. So if carsharing in Shanghai could be a success, carsharing in China could be accepted by more people. On the other hand, most of the office buildings and jobs are also located in the center covering about 100 km2 in Shanghai. Carsharing is success in most crowded and busy cities, such as New York City, and London. This will makes Shanghai as an excellent case to compare data with other worldwide cities.
The following work is divided into three main parts to show how the research will be done. It contains: (1) a synopsis of travel behavior theory as it relates to carsharing, to makes my own theory about carsharing with the help of literature review; (2) a methodology, to show how to get the data and how to use these data to analyze the hypothesis of the theory; and (3) proposed policy analysis, to create different policy options and use the data to show what is the advantages and disadvantages of these options.
After the analysis, we could get four conclusions:
（1）The social impact of carsharing is very important, if carsharing in China could be widely operated, it will slow down the increasing speed of vehicle ownership.
（2）The application possible of carsharing in China is not ready, but we could know the great future.
（3）Since the energy and environmental sense is not widely accepted, the personal energy and environmental factors are not the major impact with the choice utility.
（4）Economic benefit is still the major factor when people decide whether to join carsharing.
Key Words: Carsharing, Sustainbility, Choice Preference, Utility Model, Vehicle Type Choice, Logit.