研 究 生：汪益纯
A dissertation submitted to
Tongji University in conformity with the requirements for
the degree of Master of Engineering
Research of Hazard identification and Prediction
on Urban Traffic Based on Novice Driver
School: School of Transportation Engineering
Major: Transportation Planning and Management
Candidate: Yi-chun Wang
Supervisor: Associate Prof. Chuan Chen
With the development of the national economy and road traffic, our country faces a severe road safety situation, but this has been attracting increasing attention. Novice drivers have become accident-prone people because of limited driving knowledge, poverty of driving experience, unskilled of driving. Recent years, the increase number of new driver is nearly two million. It has great significance to Research on novice driver and Road safety publicity and education for them. It can help to improve traffic safety standards and reduce road traffic accidents. The reason of accident in large part is that the driver cannot identify the Potential danger point in traffic environment. Novice driver's ability of Hazard identification and Prediction is more poverty. So this article research on hazard identification and Prediction of novice driver. At last, the suggestion of traffic safety propaganda and education will be given.
First of all, the accident types are concluded according to accident case, and then the reasons of drivers are analyzed. The classification of the driver driving behavior will be get based on the reasons of drivers. Results show that driver's hazard identification and Prediction, illegal behavior, and distraction are closely related with the accident. After that this article Selects the specific driving behavior and summarizes the typical traffic scenarios.The former is used to analyze the characteristics of driving behavior. The latter is used to examine the risk that novice driver are easy to overlook.According to the above content, the questionnaire is designed that includes the socio-economic characteristics, life attitude characteristics, driving characteristics and typical traffic survey.
Secondly, according to survey results, the novice driver's driving behavior characteristics are concluded used factor analysis, cluster analysis and correlation analysis.
Thirdly, the accident model is built. Model variables include the socio-economic characteristics, life attitude characteristics and driving characteristics. The factors related closed to the accident and how it affects the accident will be gain. Using the survey results about typical traffic scenarios, the hazard that novice driver are easy to ignored will be analyzed.
Finally, the suggestion of traffic safety propaganda and education will be given.
Key Words: Traffic safety, Driver behavior, Novice driver, Hazard identification and prediction, Traffic safety propaganda and education