申请同济大学工学硕士学位论文


基于初驾者的城市道路交通危险识别与预测研究

 

培养单位:交通运输工程学院

学科门类:工学

学科专业:交通运输规划与管理

研 究 生:汪益纯

指导教师:陈川 副教授

二〇一一年三月

 

A dissertation submitted to

Tongji University in conformity with the requirements for

the degree of Master of Engineering

Research of Hazard identification and Prediction

on Urban Traffic Based on Novice Driver

 

School: School of Transportation Engineering

Discipline: Engineering

Major: Transportation Planning and Management

Candidate: Yi-chun Wang

Supervisor: Associate Prof. Chuan Chen

March, 2011

 

摘  要

随着国民经济、道路交通的发展以及机动化进程的加快,我国的道路交通安全形势日益严峻并越来越引起人们的重视。初驾者因为驾驶知识有限、驾驶经验不足、驾驶技能不熟练,导致其成为道路交通事故的高发人群。我国每年新增驾驶员近2000万,初驾者数量庞大,针对初驾者开展研究并提出针对初驾者的交通安全宣传教育,有利于提高初驾者的交通安全水平,减少道路交通事故的发生。


事故发生很大一部分原因是驾驶员未能及时识别道路环境中潜在的危险点,初驾者危险识别与预测的能力更是不足,针对这一特点,本文进行初驾者城市道路的交通危险识别与预测的研究,根据研究结论,提出初驾者交通安全宣传教育的对策和建议。研究内容主要包括以下几个部分。


首先,根据事故案例,总结事故发生类型,并且分析各类事故中导致事故发生的驾驶员方面的原因,以此得出驾驶员驾驶行为的分类。研究发现,驾驶员的危险识别与预测行为、违规行为以及不专心驾驶行为是跟事故发生密切相关的行为。在事故分析以及驾驶行为分类的基础上,本文进一步总结选取具体驾驶行为和典型交通情景,具体驾驶行为用以分析初驾者各类驾驶行为特征,典型交通情景用以考察初驾者容易忽视的危险点。根据上述内容设计包含初驾者社会经济特征、生活态度特征、驾驶行为特征以及典型交通情景的问卷调查。


其次,根据问卷调查结果,利用因子分析法、聚类分析法以及相关检验方法分析不同类型初驾者的驾驶行为特征


再次,利用初驾者社会经济特征、生活态度特征以及驾驶行为特征建立初驾者事故发生模型,得出影响初驾者事故发生的相关因素。利用典型交通情景处理方式的调查结果,分析典型情境下初驾者容易忽视的危险点以及判断初驾者的危险识别与预测水平。


最后,根据上述结论,提出我国交通安全宣传的对策和建议。


关键词: 交通安全,驾驶行为,初驾者,交通危险识别与预测,交通安全宣传教育

 

ABSTRACT

With the development of the national economy and road traffic, our country faces a severe road safety situation, but this has been attracting increasing attention. Novice drivers have become accident-prone people because of limited driving knowledge, poverty of driving experience, unskilled of driving. Recent years, the increase number of new driver is nearly two million. It has great significance to Research on novice driver and Road safety publicity and education for them. It can help to improve traffic safety standards and reduce road traffic accidents. The reason of accident in large part is that the driver cannot identify the Potential danger point in traffic environment. Novice driver's ability of Hazard identification and Prediction is more poverty. So this article research on hazard identification and Prediction of novice driver. At last, the suggestion of traffic safety propaganda and education will be given.


First of all, the accident types are concluded according to accident case, and then the reasons of drivers are analyzed. The classification of the driver driving behavior will be get based on the reasons of drivers. Results show that driver's hazard identification and Prediction, illegal behavior, and distraction are closely related with the accident. After that this article Selects the specific driving behavior and summarizes the typical traffic scenarios.The former is used to analyze the characteristics of driving behavior. The latter is used to examine the risk that novice driver are easy to overlook.According to the above content, the questionnaire is designed that includes the socio-economic characteristics, life attitude characteristics, driving characteristics and typical traffic survey.


Secondly, according to survey results, the novice driver's driving behavior characteristics are concluded used factor analysis, cluster analysis and correlation analysis.


Thirdly, the accident model is built. Model variables include the socio-economic characteristics, life attitude characteristics and driving characteristics. The factors related closed to the accident and how it affects the accident will be gain. Using the survey results about typical traffic scenarios, the hazard that novice driver are easy to ignored will be analyzed.


Finally, the suggestion of traffic safety propaganda and education will be given.


Key Words:  Traffic safety, Driver behavior, Novice driver, Hazard identification and prediction, Traffic safety propaganda and education